![]() At the same time, it has boosted annual yields in Iowa and Minnesota by approximately 2.8%. In some Corn Belt states, such as Indiana and Illinois, climate change is shaving up to 8% off of annual corn yields. ![]() We found that climate change is causing a small net increase in yields of these crops – on average, about 0.1% and 3.7% respectively each year.īut these numbers reflect both gains and losses. In the United States corn and soybeans are important cash crops, with a combined value of more than US$90 billion in 2017. Ray et al., 2019, CC BY A mixed US picture Yields of sorghum, which many people in the developing world use as a food grain, have increased by 0.7% in sub-Saharan Africa and 0.9% yearly in western, southern and southeastern Asia due to climate shifts since the 1970s.Ĭlimate change is boosting maize (corn) yields in parts of the U.S., Latin America and Asia, but sharply reducing them elsewhere. In contrast, some more drought-tolerant crops have benefited from climate change. For example, we estimated that climate change was reducing global rice yields by 0.3% and wheat yields by 0.9% on average each year. ![]() There were variations between locations and among crops, but when all of these different results were totaled, we found yields of some important global staples were already declining. Our analysis showed that climate change has already affected crop yields around the world. The difference between what we would have predicted, based on the counterfactual weather, and what actually occurred reflects the influence of climate change. Once we had constructed an empirical model connecting crop yield to weather variations at each location, we could use it to assess how much yields had changed from what we would have expected to see if average weather patterns had not changed. And when we translated crop yields into consumable calories – the actual food on people’s plates – we found that climate change is already shrinking food supplies, particularly in food-insecure developing countries. Overall, however, climate change is reducing global production of staples such as rice and wheat. Not all of the changes are negative: Some crop yields have increased in some locations. We found that climate change has affected yields in many places. Other than cassava and oil palm, all are important U.S. Roughly 83 percent of consumable food calories come from just these 10 sources. We focused on the top 10 global crops that provide the bulk of consumable food calories: Maize (corn), rice, wheat, soybeans, oil palm, sugarcane, barley, rapeseed (canola), cassava and sorghum. To analyze these questions, a team of researchers led by the University of Minnesota’s Institute on the Environment spent four years collecting information on crop productivity from around the world. In a recently published study, I worked with other scientists to see whether climate change was measurably affecting crop productivity and global food security. Farmers are used to dealing with weather, but climate change is making it harder by altering temperature and rainfall patterns, as in this year’s unusually cool and wet spring in the central U.S.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |